Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
